Sport: NFL - NFC East Predictions 2012

This rather lengthy piece was written for a friend who has his own NFL-centric blog. I am looking to expand my NFL-based output as the season nears, and I will be writing articles previewing several other NFL divisons, as well as opinion pieces.

New York Giants:

For those of you with a good memory, you may remember that the last time the New York Football Giants defended a Super Bowl title, they did rather well. In 2008 they finished the season 12-4 after a 10-1 start, including victories over the Baltimore Ravens, the eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers at home, and Super Bowl runners up the Arizona Cardinals. But then Plaxico Burress shot himself in a nightclub and the team suffered a well-documented implosion of sorts. The Philadelphia Eagles got hot at exactly the right time, while the Giants floundered and crashed out of the playoffs.

So, I think I speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say ‘fingers crossed Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks don’t shoot themselves this season’.

The wide receiver partnership of Nicks and Cruz is arguably far more potent than the 2008 partnership of Burress and Toomer, and for the Giants to have a productive 2012 season they need to stay healthy. A second Super Bowl ring and a string of clutch victories have ended the discussion over whether Eli Manning is elite, but questions remain over his supporting cast. Nicks is arguably the Giants’ key player heading into 2012, but can still elevate his game after moments last season which no doubt left Giants fans pulling their hair out. Cruz exploded into one of the NFL’s premier wideouts but will need to maintain that standard this season to prove he wasn’t a one hit wonder.

The Giants of 2011 were ravaged by injuries before the season had started, and throughout the season key players such as Defensive Ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, and offensive linemen Chris Snee and David Baas all suffered injuries that limited their effectiveness. As of yet there have been no major training camp injuries, and a healthy Giants defence should be much improved from its points and yards rankings of 25^th and 27^th, respectively. It isn’t a surprise that the Giants end of season run coincided with a largely healthy defence.
Although the defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and will only improve with the return of a healthy Tuck and a Umenyiora with a new contract, the Giants still have a glaring weakness on defence – the secondary. A unit comprised of Antrel Rolle, Terrell Thomas (injured last season), Kenny Phillips, Corey Webster and Prince Amukamara should, on talent alone, be near the top of the NFL’s rankings. But it is not. They need to learn to play as a unit and not, as it has felt in recent seasons, a group of individuals. The running game has also suffered following the break-up of ‘Earth, Wind and Fire’ in 2008, but the explosive rookie David Wilson should provide a solid compliment to Ahmad Bradshaw and improve the units overall production. The offensive line is another area of uncertainty, with the largely unproven James Brewer and Mitch Petrus likely to take a starring role this season.

Speaking of offseason personnel changes, the Giants have made some shrewd moves that will have an immediate impact. Mario Manningham, Jake Ballard and Brandon Jacobs have been replaced by exciting rookie prospects Rueben Randle, Adrien Robinson and David Wilson, while the Giants brought in Keith Rivers via trade. Rivers is a solid linebacker when not injured (there’s a trend emerging here....) and should shore up the middle of the defence.

I think it is unlikely that the Giants will repeat as Super Bowl champions, but it is a safe bet that Tom Coughlin will have his men prepared to mount a hell of a title defence. Coughlin has proven in the past that he is as adept at psychologically preparing his team following periods of success as he is following periods of adversity. If history repeats itself, the Giants’ performance in 2012 could mirror that of 2008. If they can stay healthy and both the offense and defence play to the level that Giants fans know they can there is no reason Tom Coughlin’s men cannot win the NFC East and make a deep playoff run.

Dallas Cowboys:

It has become something of a tradition for football pundits to name Dallas as division champions/conference champions/Super Bowl participants before the season has started. In recent years they have fallen comically short of these estimations, and have reached the post-season only once in the past four seasons.

But I am going to submit to this trend only because this season it is true. The Dallas Cowboys of 2011 almost won the NFC East. If Miles Austin and Tony Romo connect on a key third down in the fourth quarter against the Giants in week 14, the Cowboys win that game and the Giants are eliminated from playoff contention. How different would the NFL landscape look if that had happened?

Make no mistake about it, the team – and not just Tony Romo - have fourth quarter and second half of the season issues and they could well be a deciding factor in how the 2012 Dallas Cowboys finish. However the Cowboys have a schedule which is one of the toughest in the division, but five of their last seven games taking place at home, which should give them an advantage heading into the latter part of the season.

I’m going to play the health card again and say that if Tony Romo can stay injury-free this season he can lead the Cowboys back to the playoffs. There are few quarterbacks who performed better in the regular season than Romo last year, and fans can look to him to improve further – particularly in his decision-making - in 2012. In a division dependent on good quarterback play, the Cowboys made a shrewd move in the acquisition of Kyle Orton: a more than dependable backup should Romo go down injured. His supporting cast remains largely unchanged and should cause problems for NFC East defences all season. It remains to be seen just how much of a headache Dez Bryant will become, however. If he remains injury-free and his ongoing legal issues wrap up prior to the opening game against the Giants, the Cowboys offense becomes infinitely more potent. Similarly, Demarco Murray needs to emerge as a three-down back in order to bring much-needed balance to the Cowboys attack.

But the Cowboys’ offence hasn’t been the issue over the past few seasons. No, their Achilles heel, particularly last season under Rob Ryan, has been their defence. But the ‘boys have seemingly made it an offseason priority to shore up some glaring weaknesses: Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr have been brought in via the draft and free agency in order to bolster a vulnerable secondary, Anthony Spencer was re-signed, and draft picks Tyron Crawford and Kyle Wilbur should help anchor the rest of the defence.

This prediction is entirely dependent on the Cowboys’ ability to cut out the costly mistakes that reared their head all too often last season. Much of this is dependent on the coaching staff and Tony Romo, but in terms of personnel the Cowboys have shored up key weaknesses and have more than enough talent to finish the season with double-digit wins and a spot in the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles: Another memory test here: remember when freshly acquired back-up quarterback Vince Young decided to declare the 2011 incarnation of the Philadelphia Eagles as ‘the dream team’, in the process placing biblical levels of pressure on the team before a single meaningful game had been played? Who doesn’t? Of course, it’s unlikely that Young intended his words to weigh as heavily as an albatross round the Eagles’ collective necks, but it certainly had a detrimental effect on the team’s performance throughout 2011.

Fast-forward to July 2012, and Michael Vick has crowned the Eagles the NFL’s next ‘dynasty’ team. Well, they do say it’s a copycat league, and Vick is doing his best Vince Young impression. It remains to be seen how this impacts the team however, and his claim could well end up mirroring Eli Manning’s 2011 pre-season assertion that he is ‘elite’. A lot of people ate humble pie after Super Bowl XLVI and a lot more could be eating it again after Super Bowl XLVII. Who Knows?

The ‘dream team’ however, is in a state of flux. Many of the players brought in last offseason are now gone, with players such as Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith and Vince Young leaving for pastures new, and marquee signings such as Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie underperformed for large parts of the season. But despite this, there remain a core of players whose presence makes Philadelphia a formidable opponent and ultimately playoff contenders. Players such as Evan Mathis, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, along with the addition of Demeco Ryans and the improved form of Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie, will no doubt see the Eagles remain competitive for most of the season. They also made some solid personnel moves with the acquisition of OT Demetress Bell, as well as re-signing DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy. The Eagles looked to shore up their defence through the draft as well, drafting exciting defensive prospects Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks and Vinny Curry. Providing they stay healthy and play as a cohesive unit, the Eagles defence could easily be one of the league’s best in 2012.

But speaking of rookies, there is another who could see a fair amount of playing time in 2012: Arizona’s Nick Foles. I hear you, the Eagles have a perfectly good quarterback in Michael Vick, but Vick is someone who has completed only one full season since his rookie season in 2001. Much like his counterparts Manning and Romo, the Eagles live and die on the performance of Vick – compare the quality of his performances in 2010 and 2011 and their relation to the team’s success - and he isn’t getting any younger. No disrespect to Foles, but his NFL career is in its infancy, and if he has to take the reins, it is bad news for Eagles fans.

It may be in vogue to say that Andy Reid is on the ‘hot seat’ this season, but it’s hard to disagree. There is no doubt that Reid’s tenure is stagnating, and despite the fact that he is one of the league’s better coaches, his Eagles look no closer to winning a championship. It’s a situation reminiscent of Jeff Fischer in Tennessee. If we’re being realistic, if the Eagles finish higher than .500 Reid will keep his job. This is likely, but will they become Michael Vick’s dynasty team? With Andy Reid at the helm I can’t be so sure.

The Eagles no doubt have the talent to win the NFC East – their four game win streak at the end of last season could well be the real deal - but it’s hard to imagine them putting their egos aside and performing to the level that everyone knows they can. If they do, and Vick rekindles his 2010 form, there is no reason that they cannot amass at least 10 wins, and the NFC East will potentially see a team with double-digit wins failing to reach the playoffs (on the grounds that the NFC North is also extremely competitive). Failing that, 9-7 is a more realistic estimation.

Washington Redskins: Perennial basement-dwellers the Washington Redskins will remain that in 2012, and as much as Redskins fans won’t want to hear it, the Redskins will finish below .500 once again. The ‘Skins face a tough schedule in which they play five games against NFC East opponents (and Baltimore) in the space of seven weeks.

That isn’t to say that it’s all doom-and-gloom in DC though.

The Washington Redskins, at least offensively, are the Carolina Panthers of 2012. We all know how the Panthers came out of nowhere and lit the league up with an explosive offense, led by an exciting rookie prospect at the quarterback position. Well, the Redskins’ paid a king’s ransom to draft Robert Griffin III in a move that is clearly designed to emulate the success of Newton and a crop of highly-mobile quarterbacks around the league. Last season Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns. Tim Tebow rushed for 660 yards and 6 touchdowns. Michael Vick had 589 yards and a solitary touchdown. Even the pocket passers are getting in on the action. Aaron Rodgers, Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder all rushed for over 200 yards each with Rodgers and Freeman both registering multiple touchdowns. Colts rookie Andrew Luck ran a 4.59 at the NFL combine and appears to be in the same mould as Rodgers. All signs point to Griffin being a more than capable passer, but in a rookie season he may be forced to rely upon his legs as he adjusts to the nuances of the NFL game. Griffin will no doubt put up impressive numbers on the ground, and the whole Redskins offense will be the better for it.

As key to the success of the offense as Griffin is, there is no doubt that he can’t do it all by himself. To draw an obvious parallel, Cam Newton may have been in a similar situation last year in Carolina but he had a solid supporting cast of Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, DeAngelo Williams and Jeremy Shockey. Seemingly the Redskins recognise this and have made moves this offseason to give Griffin something resembling a receiver corps to utilise, something the team has lacked for several years. Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan have been brought in to complement veteran receiver Santana Moss, the promising but inconsistent Anthony Armstrong, and Tight Ends Fred Davis and Chris Cooley. The Redskins lack a home-run hitter at the position, but the group should put up decent stats and most vitally give Griffin no shortage of options. The ‘Skins also have a nice stable of running backs now that Tim Hightower is reunited with promising sophomore back Roy Helu following a torn ACL last season. Hightower and Helu looked dangerous in their brief time spent together and should perform well behind a decent offensive line anchored by Trent Williams and Kory Lichtensteiger.

Defensively the Redskins are underrated. The unit finished the 2011 season ranked 13th overall, but the front seven combine to form a formidable pass rush. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett’s system is high-risk/high-reward and this is shown in the amount of pressure that the unit garner (according to Footballoutsiders.com the Redskins’ defence ranked first in pass pressure), but this also tends to leave the secondary dangerously exposed. With a pair of arguably talented but patchy safeties in Brandon Merriweather and Tanard Jackson, this could be a major weak point in an otherwise solid Redskins defence. London Fletcher is the heart of this front seven, leading by example in a ferocious linebacking corps that also contains Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. Barry Cofield, Kedric Golston and Stephen Bowen are all dependable players on a staunch defensive line, but are surprisingly vulnerable against the run, an area in which the Redskins ranked 18^th last season.

Despite a lack of progression under Mike Shanahan, it is clear that the Redskins are making moves that will see an improvement in the 2012 season. The ‘Skins are still in the process of rebuilding, but they are now beginning to do things the right way and according to the wishes of Mike Shanahan and not owner Daniel Snyder. They have bucked the trend of ridiculous FA-singings and are building via the draft. Admittedly a league-imposed salary cap hit wiped out $18 Million dollars of cap space, making it particularly difficult for Snyder to bring in the next Haynesworth/McNabb/Portis/Hall (delete as applicable). Although they may be improving off the field, these moves are unlikely to have an immediate impact and will not translate into a winning season. The Redskins are team very much in transition, and inexperience and a tough schedule will combine to keep the ‘Skins at the bottom of the NFC East.